My prediction: 55%
That’s the percentage of the vote I believe Obama will have on election day.
I think the Democrats will gain on their majority in Congress, and could wind up with 60 Senate seats.
And it will take a mandate like this to fix what ails our world. It will take a message like this to be sent to the leadership of the Republican Party that they’ve allowed far right fascists and fundamentalist zealots to take over their party. The nomination of Sarah Palin is, hopefully, the final straw in driving the Republican Party back to Center.
Back in days of Old, 20+ years ago, both parties had conservatives and liberals and centrists. There were Scoop Jackson Democrats and Dixiecrats holding down the conservative dogma on one side, balanced by Rockefeller Republicans on the other. Today, this no longer exists. While by modern standards, one might label Rudy Giuliani the Republican liberal, beyond his support for abortion and gay rights, his political philosophy is no less Right leaning than Dick Cheney.
Sarah Palin’s nomination is the prima fascia evidence of who is running the party. John McCain has never had the trust of the party’s right wing base, and Palin is his acquiescence to that base. Her extreme views on abortion, her lack of knowledge and experience, her inability to answer direct questions (and I mean inability, not just political double-speak), her political vindictiveness -just ask her ex-brother-in-law’s boss- all add up to someone who would never have gotten through a balanced vetting process. She is so clearly unqualified to be President (which IS the Vice president’s job) that to most people who can view her with an open mind, her nomination is all the evidence anyone needs to display to the world about who, exactly, is running the Republican Party. It is frightening to me, how many people can overlook her obvious lack of qualifications in assessing their own vote for John McCain.
As for McCain himself, there are enough talking heads on TV that admit he is a Good Person, A Fine Man, And American Hero. Laudable, commendable, and one can admire the man for all his good traits.
But when a staunch Republican and fellow military man like Colin Powell, who has known McCain for 25 years gives his endorsement to Barack Obama (see his endorsement on Meet the Press here. It is one of the most eloquent and insightful 7 minutes of television you’ll ever see) that tells you something. The blind-eye McCain supporters will say Powell’s endorsement is racially motivated, but if you watch the clip, there is no way that anyone could truly believe that.
Speaking of race…
I am not a fan of Barack’s because he’s black, but I sure am glad he is. I think the mere fact that he’s a Christian bi-racial son of a white Christian Kansas woman and a black Kenyan Muslim man, and he’s a viable candidate for POTUS, makes me feel exuberant about this country and its future. Finally, FINALLY! there is more than lip-service being given to the discussion of race and opportunity in the US. And the fact that a black man with that name can even be considered, is a watershed moment in this country’s history. Maybe it took a disastrous fuck-up like George Bush to kick the slacker youth of this country into waking up and joining the discussion, and I believe these newly-minted interested sub-30-year-olds will be the driving force in Obama’s victory come November.
Obama represents, ironically, the same change for this country, as did Ronald Reagan. He offers a change and offers hope. In 1980, we went from watching a tired, ineffective Jimmy Carter, sitting in his sweater, in an Oval Office with the thermostats turned down, wringing his hands (from cold or frustration), with hostages in Iran being held interminably, with gas prices rising, and a self-admitted malaise hanging over the country, to…..well, HOPE!
On Ronnie’s Day 1, the hostages were freed! And suddenly things started to look better. Gas prices stabilized. Jobs seemed to appear. Consumers started spending- so much so that a whole new class of folks called Yuppies came into being. Basically, all the country needed was some hope. Some faith in leadership and the government’s ability to make things better. (I can’t sit here and defend the corruption and darker parts of the Reagan era. That is admittedly a truth, but it isn’t germane for the point of this post).
So how will Obama garner 55% when none of the polls show such an overwhelming victory?
Well, that under-30 demographic has a large percentage of non-land-line users. That’s right all you old fogeys, these kids don’t even have “real” telephones. And real telephones are still the way polls are conducted. All these kids have are cell phones, and think to yourself, when was the last time you got a marketing or sales or polling call on your cell phone? There is a large percentage of the young vote that is going to come out and swing hard for Obama, and their voice is currently not being counted in the polls. With Obama ahead, as he is currently, the Republican’s only hope is that there are enough slackers out there who think that since Obama is winning, they don’t need to bother to vote. Absent that, McCain will be suffering a Mondale-esque defeat. (Well maybe more a Dukakisian defeat). But he’ll lose big nonetheless.
So I you’re out there reading this, and you’re voting for McCain-Palin, I urge you to stop and think. Look at your own candidates in a cold hard light. If you’re a single-issue voter, say adamantly anti-abortion, then fine, vote the GOP ticket. But if you are a member of the lower or middle class- if you make anywhere from $15-$200K a year; if you think you might need to see a doctor in the next 8 years, if you have children who need education, or have children would be of military age in the next 8 years, or are pro-choice, or believe in *habeas corpus, or feel that the US’s status as a world leader has slipped and think that more massive use of military force will only exacerbate that slippage; then vote for Barack Obama.
It’s time for hope. It’s time for change.
*
Habeas corpus (
IPA:
/ˌheɪ.bɪ.əsˈkɔː.pəs/) (
Latin: [We command] that you have the body)
[1] is the name of a legal action, or
writ, through which a person can seek
relief from unlawful
detention of himself or another person. The writ of habeas corpus has historically been an important instrument for the safeguarding of individual freedom against arbitrary state action.
Basically, Habeas corpus means the State cannot hold you without charging you with a crime.
And unless you’ve been living under a rock since 2002, you’d know that this bedrock tenet of American rights has been suspended. Yes, just like Stalin, Hitler and any other number of dictatorial states, the US Gummint can now, right now!, LEGALLY knock in your door, throw you down, handcuff you and haul you away to a prison (perhaps even one in a country where they allow torture) and hold you for as long as they like without EVER charging you with anything.
From 1776 through the year 2002, all the previous members of the all the branches of the US Government believed that your individual rights as an American Citizen were more important. But not the Gang of Cheney, Rove and Dubya.
So, did I mention, you should vote for Obama?